THE 'THICK MARKET' EFFECT AND AGGLOMERATION IN HIGH-GROWTH INDUSTRIES

Abstract. This paper considers a simple model of geographical concentration of new high‐technology industries that lack stable design standards. In the model, agglomerative effects result from positive feedback between competitive forces in the upstream and downstream segments of a high‐technology industry, rather than as a result of traditional scale economies in the manufacturing of standardized products. The model assumes that firms in the upstream service supply industry have ex ante uncertain costs and compete in Bertrand fashion for the independent demands of downstream firms. This framework explains the mechanism of spatial clustering in industries with a high rate of innovation.     

Policies and international trade agreements on technical compatibility for industries with network externalities

The paper considers a country (home) in which consumers have heterogeneous preferences over ex ante incompatible domestic and imported products and benefit from a network externality. We analyze the cases with trade under perfect competition and the international duopoly, in which both governments strategically use policies toward compatibility but cannot use conventional trade policies. In both cases, the equilibrium outcome of the non-cooperative game depends upon the strength of the network externality effect and involves either an excessively high equilibrium level of compatibility (in combination with either too much or too little trade) or very low equilibrium levels of both compatibility and trade. The paper concludes with the analysis of the international agreements on policies toward compatibility and evaluates the existing provisions in the WTO legal system aimed at minimizing the trade-inhibiting impact of standards and regulations in the area of technical compatibility.     

Mindreading and Manipulation in an Ecology of Prisoner’s Dilemma Games: Laboratory Experiments

Synopsis Humans have a rational reason to seek out and selectively play Prisoner’s Dilemma games with others who (for whatever reason) will play cooperatively, while avoiding those who will defect. It follows that they also have reason to try and persuade others that they will personally cooperate if a game is joined (using the term from Evolutionary Psychology, to ‘manipulate’ others’ beliefs) and, thus, to penetrate to the truth underlying such efforts (to ‘mindread’ others intentions). We develop an economic model of mindreading and manipulation that can govern exchange relationships in natural circumstances, and report laboratory data showing that, absent constraining institutions that make play with cooperators likely, intending defectors are more likely to be chosen as partners than are intending cooperators. Intending defectors’ efforts at manipulation appear to be more successful than their potential victims’ efforts at mindreading. The findings suggest the nature of the problem that must be addressed for would-be traders in the absence of well-enforced rules governing contracts, and we discuss the patterns of behavior that are likely responses in such circumstances.     

Technical compatibility and the mode of foreign entry with network externalities

Abstract.  We examine the preferences of a foreign firm and a local government over two modes of foreign direct investment: de novo entry and acquisition of the domestic incumbent. Two crucial features of the model are network externalities and partial incompatibility between the domestic and the foreign technology. The relative welfare impact of the two entry modes depends on the degree of market competition and the strength of the network externality. The clash between the foreign firm's choice and the local government's ranking of the two entry modes can motivate limits on the degree of foreign ownership of the local firm.     

How Seller and Product Characteristics Impact Promotion on eBay

This study draws on signaling theory to test whether seller and product characteristics impact the use of display-type versus informational-type promotion on eBay. The authors predict that display-type promotion is used by less-experienced sellers who cannot promote on the basis of their own seller ratings. The authors predict that experienced sellers, on the other hand, prefer informational promotion since their high ratings make seller-provided statements more credible. In addition to seller characteristics, the authors predict that product characteristics, such as price and product condition, also impact promotion. It is expected that higher prices drive greater investments in display-type promotions overall, even if such promotion is less effective. Finally, it is hypothesized that the better the condition of the product, the greater the use of informational promotion since this kind of disclosure is especially influential. The hypotheses were tested using a large data set of auction data from eBay and received excellent support. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Does It Pay to Promote on eBay?

Promotional upgrades to auction listings are now a ubiquitous feature of auction Web sites. We examine 705 auctions of a single consumer-electronic product on eBay and test whether use of various promotions results in a greater probability of sale or a higher realized price. We find that promotions that focus on display enhancements, such as border, bold, or highlight, are not worth the cost. However, the subtitle promotional tool is effective and worth the cost. We also find interesting results regarding seller reputation: although seller reputation does not increase the probability of a sale overall, it can result in higher realized price if a reputable seller is selected. Implications for promoting on eBay are discussed.     

Option Pricing Using Variance Gamma Markov Chains

This paper proposes a Markov Chain between homogeneous Lévy processesas a candidate class of processes for the statistical and risk neutral dynamicsof financial asset prices. The method is illustrated using the variance gammaprocess. Closed forms for the characteristic function are developed and thisrenders feasible, series and option prices respectively. It is observed inthe statistical and risk neutral process is fit to data on time period of4 to 6 months in a state while this reduces to month for indices. Risk neutrallythere is generally a low probability of a move to a state with higher moments.In some cases this is reversed.     

Efficient estimation of general dynamic models with a continuum of moment conditions

There are two difficulties with the implementation of the characteristic function-based estimators. First, the optimal instrument yielding the ML efficiency depends on the unknown probability density function. Second, the need to use a large set of moment conditions leads to the singularity of the covariance matrix. We resolve the two problems in the framework of GMM with a continuum of moment conditions. A new optimal instrument relies on the double indexing and, as a result, has a simple exponential form. The singularity problem is addressed via a penalization term. We introduce HAC-type estimators for non-Markov models. A simulated method of moments is proposed for non-analytical cases.